I was interviewed on January 13, 2025 by Rishi Nagar, the inestimable news director of RedFM Calgary discussing the significant changes that the new year has already brought. The interview started by discussing the impact of the prorogued Parliament on immigration processing and policy. While day to day operations are unaffected by the political stasis no significant legislative change can occur. This is of course a time of great uncertainty and it is very difficult to prognosticate (prognostication being difficult in the best of circumstances). At the time of the interview, Donald Trump was yet to return to the Presidency but it is a certainty that Canada will be impacted on a number of fronts, including immigration processing. I did share on social media my thought that 2025 would be a year of refusals and we will see the ascendancy of integrity over integration and enforcement over facilitation. CBSA will be at the forefront rather than IRCC.
Other topics included
- the Trudeau (Near) Decade has seen asylum claims skyrocket, acceptance rates increase, and now an unprecedented refugee backlog of 260,000.
- the MIA (missing in action) Home Support Worker Pilot
- the Immigration Levels Plans necessarily means a dearth of significant new pathways for PR
Ultimately Canadian immigration processing and policy will be reactive rather than proactive given the return of Trump.
Summary:
Raj Sharma in an interview on RedFM with News Director Rishi Nagar shared his insights on the current state of Canada's immigration policies, especially in light of the prorogation of Parliament and the ongoing political turmoil in Ottawa and the incoming Trump Administration.
While the prorogation means that no new laws can be passed or amended until the Parliament is in session, the lawyer explained that the day-to-day workings of immigration like Express Entry, deportations, and work permit applications are unaffected. However, until Parliament resumes, any potential changes to legislation cannot be initiated.
On LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment) process the changes that were to be effectuated in spring 2025, the lawyer stressed that it's hard to predict anything right now. Without a functioning government and a presumably distracted minister and cabinet, it’s tough to say if those changes will be considered or not. A looming issue: the rising number of refugee claims in Canada more so in light of the political situation in the U.S. under Donald Trump, who may follow through on his pledge of mass deportation. The STC was also discussed -at this moment pursuant to 14-day rule mentioned in Safe Third Country Agreement where if a person crosses the border secretly and is not detected for 14 days then he can make a refugee claim and will not be assessed under STCA rules. There may well be an effort to curtail this route. However, to effectuate these rules, we need a functional government and regrettably we are not in the position of negotiating with Trump’s government.
Mr. Nagar also asked about a tweet Sharma had posted, where he mentioned that 2025 will be “the year of refusals.” Sharma explained that Canada's immigration policy is shifting—moving away from the idea of helping people settle here and focusing more on enforcement; Integrity over Integration. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is expected to play a bigger and crucial role in securing the border and enforcement meaning there will be more refusals and deportations in the near future.
The conversation then turned to the rising number of asylum cases. Sharma explained how there has been an increase in the intake of asylum applications. According to one article in CBC, the number of refugee claims who were granted asylum was approx. 14,000 in 2018 whereas in 2023 the claims ballooned to 37,000. Overall, the recognition rate of refugee claims has increased from 62% to 82%. The lawyer pointed out that while the acceptance rate for refugees has been increasing (from 62% in 2018 to 82% in 2023), the complexity of claims also needs to be taken into account. He gave examples of simpler cases—like an Iranian woman fleeing forced religious practices—that are more likely to be accepted. But more complicated situations, like family disputes in countries like Nigeria, are harder to judge and could be subject to more scrutiny. Also as CBSA becomes more involved, the approval process for asylum claims may decrease.
On the topic of new pathways to Permanent Residency (PR), Sharma noted that some programs, like the Caregiver or Home Support Programs, are still awaiting official announcements. He expressed doubt that recent changes, like the requirement for French language proficiency, would benefit South Asian applicants/communities.
In the end, Sharma acknowledged that with all these changes and uncertainties, it’s difficult to predict exactly how Canada's immigration policies will evolve in the coming years. But one thing is clear that much of it will depend on what changes would be made in immigration policies by the U.S. under Trump's government and how that will impact Canada's own immigration approach.
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